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Chinese Journal of Space Science ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 298-311.doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298

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Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit

LI Sheng1,2, HUANG Wengeng1, LIU Siqing1, ZHONG Qiuzhen1   

  1. 1. National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2016-03-07 Revised:2017-01-02 Online:2017-05-15 Published:2017-05-04

Abstract:

The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to develop an empirical model to predict relativistic electron fluxes at the geostationary orbit. This model uses the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic index to forecast the EOF-coefficient, and then gives the 5min prediction results of relativistic electron differential fluxes during the coming day according to the EOF base function. By comparing with the original relativistic electron data obtained by GOES 10 from January 2003 to June 2006, it is found that the model is capable of approximately reconstructing the real changes of relativistic electron fluxes and of effectively forecasting their 5min variations. The mean prediction efficiency of this model is 67%.

Key words: Geostationary orbit, Relativistic electron differential flux, Orthogonal function analysis

CLC Number: