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Chinese Journal of Space Science ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 303-309.doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303

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Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME

MENG Chen1, LU Jianyong1, WANG Ming1, GU Chunli2, JI Haisheng3   

  1. 1. Institute of Space Weather, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;
    2. Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing 100029;
    3. Purple Mountain Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008
  • Received:2018-02-27 Revised:2018-06-29 Online:2019-05-15 Published:2019-06-01

Abstract:

The transport time is defined as the interval time between the occurrence of CME and the maximum value of the geomagnetic storm. In view of the 89 CME-Dst events collected from 1997 to 2015, the impact of CME speed, energy, and flare type on the transport time is analyzed. Using the non-linear fitting and the nonlinear regression of the Support Vector Machine (SVM), the Curve Fitting (CF) model and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for the CME transport time are built. In these models, 62 CME-Dst events during 1997-2006 are used as model input, and the remaining 27 CME-Dst events are used to test the model prediction. The results show that the prediction accuracies both of CF model and SVM model reach at about 85.2%, and the average absolute error of CF model is 13.77h while the SVM model is 13.88h. Comparing with the ECA model (its prediction accuracy is 77.8%, and the average absolute error is 14.55h), the accuracy of these two models is higher and the error is smaller than that of the ECA model. Therefore, CF model and SVM model can predict accurately the geomagnetic storm explosion with 1~5 days in advance.

Key words: CME, Geomagnetic storm, Transport time, Curve fitting, Support vector machine

CLC Number: