Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects

ZHOU Weiping; SHEN Ming; GUO Xiaozhong; GAO Pengqi; ZHAO You

doi:10.11728/cjss2017.03.312

Volume 37 Issue 3

May 2017

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ZHOU Weiping, SHEN Ming, GUO Xiaozhong, GAO Pengqi, ZHAO You. Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 312-321. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312

Citation:

ZHOU Weiping, SHEN Ming, GUO Xiaozhong, GAO Pengqi, ZHAO You. Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 312-321. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312

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Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects

doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312

1. National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Received Date: 2016-03-31
Rev Recd Date: 2016-11-02
Publish Date: 2017-05-15

Abstract

Abstract

The method of collision probability is usually used to realize the work of collision assessment and warning of space objects, thus improving accuracy of collision assessment and warning is very important. The collision probability criterion is collision probability threshold. By investigating and analyzing the related bibliography from both domestic and international researchers, a comprehensive description on determination of collision probability threshold of space objects is presented. The determination of covariance matrix, the calculation of collision probability and the flux calculation of debris are introduced in detail. Taking International Space Station (ISS) for instance, of which, the debris flux was calculated and the incidence from space environment was analyzed. The conclusion that collision probability threshold of ISS may be overrated is reached by comparing with previous results.
- Space objects,
- Collision warning,
- Covariance error,
- Space debris flux,
- Collision probability

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References(32)

References

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Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects

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