Volume 39 Issue 1
Jan.  2019
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
ZHONG Qiuzhen, WEI Lihang, LIN Ruilin, ZHENG Jinlei, LIU Siqing. Statistical Model of the Relativistic Electron Fluence Forecast at Geostationary Orbit[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(1): 18-27. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.018
Citation: ZHONG Qiuzhen, WEI Lihang, LIN Ruilin, ZHENG Jinlei, LIU Siqing. Statistical Model of the Relativistic Electron Fluence Forecast at Geostationary Orbit[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(1): 18-27. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.018

Statistical Model of the Relativistic Electron Fluence Forecast at Geostationary Orbit

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.018
  • Received Date: 2018-01-19
  • Rev Recd Date: 2018-07-10
  • Publish Date: 2019-01-15
  • Based on the theory of local acceleration by chorus mode wave, AE index is selected as a good indicator for both source electron flux and flux anisotropy, and Dst index is selected as a good indicator for relativistic electron loss. By use of AE and Dst indices as input parameters, a prediction model for relativistic electrons at GEO orbit has been established on the basis of linear filter technology. The results are as follows. The total Prediction Efficiency (PE) of our model for the data from 2000 to 2009 is 0.818. The highest PE is about 0.856, which occurred in 2009. The lowest PE is about 0.663, which occurred in 2003. The prediction accuracy of the model is significantly better than that of the persistence model and is slightly less than the model developed by the same method but taking the solar wind as the input parameters. Furthermore, the model is improved by taking solar wind speed as an additional input parameter. The values of PE from 2000 to 2009 increase every year. The PE of 2005 is increased by 9.5%. The total prediction efficiency from 2000 to 2009 increased to 0.848. The linear correlation coefficient between forecasts and observations is 0.918, and the root mean square error is 0.422.

     

  • loading
  • [1]
    WRENN G L, RODGERS D J, RYDEN K A. A solar cycle of spacecraft anomalies due to internal charging[J]. Ann. Geophys., 2002, 20:953-956. DOI: 10.5194/angeo-20-953-2002
    [2]
    LI X, TEMERIN M A. The electron radiation belt[J]. Space Sci. Rev., 2001, 95(1/2):569-580. DOI: 10.1023/A:1005221108016
    [3]
    FRIEDEL R H W, REEVES G D, OBARA T. Relativistic electron dynamics in the inner magnetosphere-a review[J]. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2002, 64(2):265-282. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-6826(01)00088-8
    [4]
    MILLAN R M, THORNE R M. Review of radiation belt relativistic electron losses[J]. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2007, 69(3):362-377. DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2006.06.019
    [5]
    MEREDITH N P, HORNE R B, SUMMERS D, et al. Evidence for acceleration of outer zone electrons to relativistic energies by whistler mode chorus[J]. Ann. Geophys., 2002, 20:967-979. DOI: 10.5194/angeo-20-967-2002
    [6]
    SUMMERS D, THORNE R M, XIAO FULIANG. Relativistic theory of wave-particle resonant diffusion with application to electron acceleration in the magnetosphere[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 1998, 103(A9):20487-20500
    [7]
    HORNE R B, THORNE R M. Potential waves for relativistic electron scattering and stochastic acceleration during magnetic storms[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1998, 25(15):3011-3014
    [8]
    THORNE R M, LI W, NI B, et al. Rapid local acceleration of relativistic radiation-belt electrons by magnetospheric chorus[J]. Nature, 2013, 504:411-414. DOI: 10.1038/nature12889
    [9]
    859-1
    [10]
    LAUBEN D S, INAN U S, BELL T F, et al. Source characteristics of ELF/VLF chorus[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2002, 107(A12):1429-1425. DOI: 10.1029/2000JA003019
    [11]
    MIYOSHI Y, MORIOKA A, MISAWA H, et al. Rebuilding process of the outer radiation belt during the 3 November 1993 magnetic storm:NOAA and Exos-D observations[J]. J.Geophys. Res., 2003, 108(AI):1004-1018. DOI: 10.1029/2001JA007542
    [12]
    BAKER D N, LI X, TURNER N, et al. Recurrent geomagnetic storms and relativistic electron enhancements in the outer magnetosphere:ISTP coordinated measurements[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 1997, 102(A7):14141-14148. DOI: 10.1029/97JA00565
    [13]
    BAKER D N, PULKKINEN T I, LI X, et al. A strong CME-related magnetic cloud interaction with the Earth's Magnetosphere:ISTP observations of rapid relativistic electron acceleration on May 15, 1997[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1998, 25(15):2975-2978. DOI: 10.1029/98GL01134
    [14]
    LI X, BAKER D N, TEMERIN M, et al. Rapid enchancements of relativistic electrons deep in the magnetosphere during the May 15, 1997, magnetic storm[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 1999, 104(A3):4467-4476
    [15]
    LI L Y, CAO J B, ZHOU G C. Relation between the variation of geomagnetospheric relativistic electron flux and storm/substorm[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2006, 49(1):9-15(李柳元, 曹晋滨, 周国成. 磁层相对论电子通量变化与磁暴/亚暴的关系[J]. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(1):9-15)
    [16]
    BAKER D N, MCPHERRON R L, CAYTON T E, et al. Linear Prediction Filter Analysis of Relativistic Electron Properties at 6.6R_{e[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 1990, 95(A9):15133-15140
    [17]
    Li X, Temerin M, Baker, D N, et al. Quantitative prediction of radiation belt electrons at geostationary orbit based on solar wind measurements[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(9):1887-1890
    [18]
    Turner D L, Li X. Quantitative forecast of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit based on low-energy electron flux[J]. Space Weather, 2008, 6(5). DOI:10. 1029/2007SW000354
    [19]
    HE Tian, LIU Siqing, XUE Bingsen, et al. Study on a forecasting method of the relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit using geomagnetic pulsation data[J]. Chinese J. Geophys., 2009, 52(10):2419-2427. DOI:10. 3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2009.10.1001(何甜, 刘四清, 薛炳森, 等. 利用地磁脉动预报地球同步轨道相对论电子通量的方法研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 2009, 52(10):2419-2427. DOI:10. 3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2009.10.1001)
    [20]
    XUE Bingsen, YE Zonghai. Forecast of the enhancement of relativistic electron at the geo-synchronous orbit[J]. Chin. J. Space Sci., 2004, 24(4):283-288(薛炳森, 叶宗海. 地球同步轨道高能电子增强事件预报方法[J]. 空间科学学报, 2004, 24(4):283-288)
    [21]
    LING A G, GINET G P, HILMER R V, et al. A neural networkbased geosynchronous relativistic electron flux forecasting model[J]. Space Weather, 2010, 8(9). DOI:10. 1029/2010SW000576
    [22]
    WANG Renzhong, SHI Liqin. Study on the forecasting method of relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit based on support vector machine[J]. Chin. J. Space Sci., 2012, 32(3):354-361(王任重, 师立勤. 基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究[J]. 空间科学学报, 2012, 32(3):354-361)
    [23]
    ZHENG Jinlei, ZHONG Qiuzhen, CHEN Liangxu, et al. Analysis on relativistic electron flux enhancement Event at GEO in April 2010[J]. Chin. J. Space Sci., 2012, 32(4):488-500(郑金磊, 钟秋珍, 陈良旭, 等. 2010年4月地球同步轨道相对论电子增强事件分析[J]. 空间科学学报, 2012, 32(4):488-500)
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article Views(1275) PDF Downloads(402) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return