Volume 39 Issue 3
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YE Yudong, FENG Xueshang. Study on Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections by Support Vector Machine ormalsize[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(3): 295-302. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.295
Citation: YE Yudong, FENG Xueshang. Study on Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections by Support Vector Machine ormalsize[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(3): 295-302. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.295
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Study on Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections by Support Vector Machine ormalsize

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.295

  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;

  • 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

  • Received Date: 2018-06-05
  • Rev Recd Date: 2019-01-31
  • Publish Date: 2019-05-15
    Abstract
  • As arriving at the Earth, Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICME) will interact with the Earth's magnetosphere and cause geomagnetic storms. The ICME event set is obtained by Richardson and Cane's Near Earth ICME list, and the input features are extracted based on interplanetary solar wind and magnetic data during ICME disturbance. A total of 483 ICME events from 1996 to 2006 are chosen in this study. 13 magnetic and kinetic features are finally selected for the training of the machine learning model. Rank of each feature's Fisher score indicates that the duration of the south-directed interplanetary magnetic field that is larger than 10nT and the increase of solar wind speed at the upstream shock or wave disturbance is closely related to the geoeffectiveness of ICME events, which is consistent with those former statistical results. The trained Radial Basis Function Support Vector Machine (RBF-SVM) can determine whether an ICME event could trigger moderate or stronger geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -50nT) effectively with an accuracy of 0.78±0.08. The results show that RBF-SVM can be used as a powerful tool in further analysis, and the better prediction of the geoeffectiveness of ICME will be obtained.

     

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