Volume 39 Issue 5
Sep.  2019
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of Space Science  > 2019  >  39(5): 582-590
YE Qian, SONG Qiao, XUE Bingsen. F10.7 Index Forecasting Method Based on Area Statistics of Solar Active Regions[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(5): 582-590. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.05.582
Citation: YE Qian, SONG Qiao, XUE Bingsen. F10.7 Index Forecasting Method Based on Area Statistics of Solar Active Regions[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(5): 582-590. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.05.582
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F10.7 Index Forecasting Method Based on Area Statistics of Solar Active Regions

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.05.582

  • 1. National Center for Space Weather, Beijing 100081;

  • 2. Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

  • Received Date: 2018-09-07
  • Rev Recd Date: 2018-12-08
  • Publish Date: 2019-09-15
    Abstract
  • Solar 10.7cm radio flux (F10.7) is an important indicator that reflects overall solar activity, which mainly comes from solar active regions. F10.7 index linearly correlates with the area size of the active regions. To improve the accuracy of F10.7 forecast, a new formula for F10.7 index prediction is proposed and evaluated, using the correlation between areas and F10.7 based on the classification of area size. The coefficients of the formula were calculated using the active region area data of SWPC and F10.7 index data of CSWFC from 2008 to 2018. Data of 2003 (active year) and 1997 (quiet year) were used to evaluate the formula. The results indicated the correlation coefficients between the predictions and the observations calculated by this formula were 0.9318 and 0.9295, both higher than the contemporary predictions of SWPC (0.9186 and 0.8771). This study utilized the active region areas on forecasting F10.7 for the first time and had improved the accuracy of F10.7 forecasting.

     

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