Volume 25 Issue 6
Nov.  2005
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
GAO Yuan, FENG Xueshang. Predicting the 1 AU Arrival Times of Interplanetary Shocks[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2005, 25(6): 495-503. doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.06.495
Citation: GAO Yuan, FENG Xueshang. Predicting the 1 AU Arrival Times of Interplanetary Shocks[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2005, 25(6): 495-503. doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.06.495

Predicting the 1 AU Arrival Times of Interplanetary Shocks

doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.06.495
  • Received Date: 1900-01-01
  • Rev Recd Date: 1900-01-01
  • Publish Date: 2005-11-15
  • In order to predict the arrival time at 1AU of interplanetary shocks, a simple model called shock propagation model is established here. In this model, the travel time is assumed to be a function of energy that is released from solar explosives, and pulse longitudinal width, pulse duration, the interaction of interplanetary shock and background solar wind are also taken into account. In order to verify the prediction efficiency, 27 interplanetary shock events from January 1979 to October 1989 and 68 interplanetary shock events from February 1997 to January 2000 are used for testing. Comparing the results of our shock propagation model with those obtained by STOA and ISPM models, we find that our disturbance propagation model is as good as the other two models, and in some cases even better. The shock propagation model can give the prediction for all the 95 shock events, while STOA model works for 89 events and ISPM model for only 72 events. There are 25.26% percentage of all the 95 events with the relative time error less than 10%, 50.53% of all the events with the relative time error less than 20%, 65.26% of all the events with the relative time error less than 30~.

     

  • loading
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article Views(2092) PDF Downloads(1068) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return