Volume 33 Issue 1
Jan.  2013
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
He Tian, Liu Siqing, Shen Hua, Gong Jiancun. Quantitative prediction of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit with geomagnetic pulsations parameters[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2013, 33(1): 20-27. doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.01.020
Citation: He Tian, Liu Siqing, Shen Hua, Gong Jiancun. Quantitative prediction of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit with geomagnetic pulsations parameters[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2013, 33(1): 20-27. doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.01.020

Quantitative prediction of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit with geomagnetic pulsations parameters

doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.01.020
  • Received Date: 2011-12-16
  • Rev Recd Date: 2012-12-08
  • Publish Date: 2013-01-15
  • Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) waves can accelerate the seed electrons produced with substorm injection, which is one of the main mechanisms for relativistic electron in the magnetosphere. Based on the previous studies, the Pi1 pulsation's duration is a good indicator for seed electrons. The Pc5 pulsation's duration and spectra power are good indicators for the efficiency of acceleration. In this paper, geomagnetic field data observed by Memambetsu observatory are used to extract Pi1 pulsations. The geomagnetic field data observed by GOES-12 satellite and SODANKYLA observatory are used to extract Pc5 pulsations. With these geomagnetic pulsation parameters, a prediction model for relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is established to provide the value of a day in advance. There are two steps. First, referencing the linear prediction filter, a multi-parameter nonlinear function has been built to give a preliminary prediction value for relativistic electron flux at GEO orbit. Then, a Kalman filter is used to correct this preliminary value with the history relativistic electron flux. The data during 2004 is used to train this model. The prediction efficiency of this year is 0.73 and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.85. In the test with data during 2005-2006, the prediction efficiency is 0.69 and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.83, which is a large promotion compared with Persistence model and closed to the imitation REFM model. On one hand, the results show that the ULF wave acceleration mechanism is one of the main mechanisms for relativistic electron. On the other hand, the magnetic pulsation parameters can be well instead of the solar wind speed parameter, which would help to establish a new relativistic electron flux prediction model with ground stations.

     

  • loading
  • [1]
    Nagai T. Space weather forecast: Prediction of relativistic electron intensity at synchronous orbit[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1988, 15(5):425-428
    [2]
    Baker D N, McPherron R L, Cayton T E, et al. Linear prediction filter analysis of relativistic electron properties at 6.6Re[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 1990,95:15133-15140
    [3]
    Li X L. Variations of 0.7~6.0MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit as a function of solar wind[J]. Space Weather, 2004, 2, S03006, doi: 10.1029/2003SW000017
    [4]
    Turner D L, Li X L. Quantitative forecast of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit based on low-energy electron flux[J]. Space Weather, 2008, 6, S05005, doi: 10.1029/2007SW000354
    [5]
    Sicard-Piet A, Bourdarie S, Boscher D, Friedel R H W, et al. A new international geostationary electron model: IGE-2006, from 1keV to 5.2MeV[J]. Space Weather, 2008, 6, S07003, doi: 10.1029/2007SW000368
    [6]
    Roth I, Temerin M, Hudson M K. Resonant enhancement of relativistic electron fluxes during geomagnetically active periods[J]. Ann. Geophys., 1999, 17:631-638
    [7]
    Meredith N P, Horne R B, Iles R H A, et al. Outer zone relativistic electron acceleration associated with substorm-enhanced whistler mode chorus[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2002, 107(A7):29-36
    [8]
    Li Liuyuan, Can Jinbin, Zhou Guocheng. Acceleration of "Seed Electrons" by whistler turbulence near the geosynchronous orbit[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2004, 47(5):756-761. In Chinese (李柳元, 曹晋滨, 周国成. 地球同步轨道附近哨声湍流对撝肿拥 缱訑的加速[J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(5):756-761)
    [9]
    O'BrienTP, LorentzenKR, Mann I R, et al. Energization of relativistic electrons in the presence of ULF power and MeV microbursts: Evidence for dual ULF and VLF acceleration[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 108(A8):11-18
    [10]
    Ukhorskiy A Y, Takahashi K, Anderson B J, et al. Impact of toroidal ULF waves on the outer radiation belt electrons[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2005, 110, A10202, doi: 10.1029/2005JA011017
    [11]
    Li L, Cao J B, Zhou G C. Combined acceleration of electrons by whistler-mode and compressional ULF turbulence near the geosynchronous orbit[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2005, 110(A3):8-15
    [12]
    He T, Liu S Q, Xue B S, et al. Study on a forcasting method of the relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit using geomagnetic pulsation data[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2009, 52(10):2419-2427. In Chinese (何甜, 刘四清, 薛炳森, 等. 利用地磁脉动预报地球同步轨道相对论电子通量方法的研究[J]. 地球物 理学报, 2009, 52(10):2419-242)
    [13]
    Degtyarev V I, Kharchenko I P, Potapov A S, et al. Qualitative estimation of magnetic storm efficiency in producing relativistic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt using geomagnetic pulsations data[J]. Adv. Space Res., 2008, doi: 10.1016/j.asr.2008.07.004
    [14]
    Degtyarev V I, Kharchenko I P, Potapov A S, et al. The relation between geomagnetic pulsations and an increase in the fluxes of geosynchronous relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms[J]. Geomag. Aeron., 2010, 50(7):885-893
    [15]
    Vassiliadis D, Klimas A J, Kanekal S G, et al. Long-term-average, solar cycle, and seasonal response of magnetospheric energetic electrons to the solar wind speed[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2002, 107(A11), 1383, doi: 10.1029/2001-JA000506
    [16]
    Vassiliadis D, Fung S F, Klimas A J. Solar, interplanetary, and magnetospheric parameters for the radiation belt energetic electron flux[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2005, 110, A04021, doi: 10.1029/2004JA010443
    [17]
    Rigler E J, Baker D N, Weigel R S, et al. Adaptive linear prediction of radiation electrons using the Kalman filter[J]. Space Weather, 2004, 2, S03003, doi: 10.1029/2003SW000036
    [18]
    Perry K L, Ginet G P, Ling A G, et al. Comparing geosynchronous relativistic electron prediction models[J]. Space Weather, 2010, 8, S12002, doi: 10.1029/2010SW000581
    [19]
    Kozyreva O, Pilipenko V, Engebretson M J, et al. In search of a new ULF wave index: Comparison of Pc5 power with dynamics of geostationary relativistic electrons[J]. Planet. Space Sci., 2007, 55:755-769
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article Views(2470) PDF Downloads(972) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return