Volume 33 Issue 1
Jan.  2013
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He Tian, Liu Siqing, Shen Hua, Gong Jiancun. Quantitative prediction of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit with geomagnetic pulsations parameters[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2013, 33(1): 20-27. doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.01.020
Citation: He Tian, Liu Siqing, Shen Hua, Gong Jiancun. Quantitative prediction of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit with geomagnetic pulsations parameters[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2013, 33(1): 20-27. doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.01.020

Quantitative prediction of relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit with geomagnetic pulsations parameters

doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.01.020
  • Received Date: 2011-12-16
  • Rev Recd Date: 2012-12-08
  • Publish Date: 2013-01-15
  • Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) waves can accelerate the seed electrons produced with substorm injection, which is one of the main mechanisms for relativistic electron in the magnetosphere. Based on the previous studies, the Pi1 pulsation's duration is a good indicator for seed electrons. The Pc5 pulsation's duration and spectra power are good indicators for the efficiency of acceleration. In this paper, geomagnetic field data observed by Memambetsu observatory are used to extract Pi1 pulsations. The geomagnetic field data observed by GOES-12 satellite and SODANKYLA observatory are used to extract Pc5 pulsations. With these geomagnetic pulsation parameters, a prediction model for relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is established to provide the value of a day in advance. There are two steps. First, referencing the linear prediction filter, a multi-parameter nonlinear function has been built to give a preliminary prediction value for relativistic electron flux at GEO orbit. Then, a Kalman filter is used to correct this preliminary value with the history relativistic electron flux. The data during 2004 is used to train this model. The prediction efficiency of this year is 0.73 and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.85. In the test with data during 2005-2006, the prediction efficiency is 0.69 and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.83, which is a large promotion compared with Persistence model and closed to the imitation REFM model. On one hand, the results show that the ULF wave acceleration mechanism is one of the main mechanisms for relativistic electron. On the other hand, the magnetic pulsation parameters can be well instead of the solar wind speed parameter, which would help to establish a new relativistic electron flux prediction model with ground stations.

     

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