Volume 34 Issue 4
Jul.  2014
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Yan Ruidong, Wang Ronglan, Liu Siqing, Liu Wei, Gong Jiancun. Study of Covariance Calculation in Space Objects Collision Warning[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2014, 34(4): 441-448. doi: 10.11728/cjss2014.04.441
Citation: Yan Ruidong, Wang Ronglan, Liu Siqing, Liu Wei, Gong Jiancun. Study of Covariance Calculation in Space Objects Collision Warning[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2014, 34(4): 441-448. doi: 10.11728/cjss2014.04.441

Study of Covariance Calculation in Space Objects Collision Warning

doi: 10.11728/cjss2014.04.441
  • Received Date: 2013-09-25
  • Rev Recd Date: 2014-02-14
  • Publish Date: 2014-07-15
  • Collision probability is an important criterion in collision warning of space objects. The accuracy of forecast covariance calculation directly affects the accuracy of the collision probability calculation. In the paper we compute two forms of statistical forecast covariance. One is to use precision numerical forecast model and the satellite precision orbit data to forecast for a specified time period, and make statistical calculation of forecast covariance of different time period as 1~ 7 days. The other is to use SGP4/SDP4 forecasting model and TLE data to forecast, and make the statistical calculation of forecast covariance of the forecast time period as 1~ 7 days. Then the forecast accuracy through two methods with the data elements affected by orbit change and without orbit change is analyzed. Taking the 2012 risk conjunction of the satellite as example, the collision warning accuracy affected by the covariance accuracy is analyzed. This covariance calculation can provide reference for actual collision warning works.

     

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