Volume 39 Issue 1
Jan.  2019
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
WU Weili, ZHAO Puzhi, CAI Qidong. Extreme Value Model of Mid- and Low-latitude Geoelectric Field Due to Magnetic Storms[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(1): 28-35. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028
Citation: WU Weili, ZHAO Puzhi, CAI Qidong. Extreme Value Model of Mid- and Low-latitude Geoelectric Field Due to Magnetic Storms[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(1): 28-35. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028

Extreme Value Model of Mid- and Low-latitude Geoelectric Field Due to Magnetic Storms

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028
  • Received Date: 2017-08-08
  • Rev Recd Date: 2017-12-11
  • Publish Date: 2019-01-15
  • Estimation for the level of extreme geoelectric field can provide a basis to quantify the risk of the grounding technology systems due to magnetic storms. The extreme value model of geoelectric field is presented on the basis of the EVT. Firstly, the years maximum sample data of geoelectric field are constructed by using the geomagnetic data, and the general Pareto distribution model is established. Secondly, the model is examined by the mean residual life plot and the Q-Q plot, and the parameters are estimated by Bayes method. Finally, the return period i.e., geoelectric field extreme value, was calculated. The 52 years' data of geomagnetic storms and the Earth resistivity model of Shache, Xinjiang are used to estimate the geoelectric field. The geoelectric field of 50-year is 3.288V·km-1 and that of once-in-a-century is up to 3.332V·km-1 in mid- and low-latitude area. By contrasting with the existing literature analysis, the credibility of model is validated.

     

  • loading
  • [1]
    BOTELER D H. Geomagnetic hazards to conducting networks[J]. Nat. Hazards, 2003, 28(2/3):537-561
    [2]
    KAPPENMAN J G. An introduction to power grid impacts and vulnerabilities from space weather[J]. Space Storms Space Weather Hazards, 2001, 38(13):351-361
    [3]
    NERC Disturbance Analysis Working Group. 1989 March 13 Geomagnetic Disturbance[R]. Atlanta:NERC, 1989:36-60
    [4]
    LIU Lianguang, LIU Chunming, ZHANG Bing, et al. Strong magnetic storm's influence on China's Guangdong power grid[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2008, 51(4):976-981(刘连光, 刘春明, 张冰, 等. 中国广东电网的几次强磁暴影响事件[J]. 地球物理学报, 2008, 51(4):976-981)
    [5]
    NGWIRA C M, PULKKINEN A, WILDER F D, et al. Extended study of extreme geoelectric field event scenarios for geomagnetically induced current applications[J]. Space Weather, 2013, 11(3):121-131
    [6]
    TSURUTANI B T, GONZALEZ W D, LAKHINA G S, et al. The extreme magnetic storm of 1-2 September 1859[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2003, 108(A7):1268
    [7]
    PULKKINEN A, BERNABEU E, EICHNER J, et al. Generation of 100-year geomagnetically induced current scenarios[J]. Space Weather, 2012, 10(4):S04003
    [8]
    THOMSON A W P, DAWSON E B, REAY S J. Quantifying extreme behavior in geomagnetic activity[J]. Space Weather, 2011, 9(10):S10001
    [9]
    PULKKINEN A, PIRJOLA R, VILJANEN A. Statistics of extreme geomagnetically induced current events[J]. Space Weather, 2008, 6(7):07001
    [10]
    PULKKINEN A, PIRJOLA R, VILJANEN A. Determination of ground conductivity and system parameters for optimal modeling of geomagnetically induced current flow in technological systems[J]. Earth Planets Space, 2007, 59(9):999-1006
    [11]
    PULKKINEN A, AMM O, VILJANEN A. Ionospheric equivalent current distributions determined with the method of spherical elementary current systems[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2003, 108(A2):1053
    [12]
    YUAN Xuecheng. The Chinese Geophysical Atlas[M]. Beijing:Geological Publishing House, 1996(袁学诚. 中国地球物理图集[M]. 北京:地质出版社, 1996)
    [13]
    LU Xinbian, SHI Yan, TIAN Chunlai. Tectonic electrical characteristics and A-model subducting patterns of southwest Tarim basin-West Kunlun Area[J]. Exp. Pet. Geol., 1995, 17(3):238-248(鲁新便, 石彦, 田春来. 塔里木盆地西南部elax——elax西昆仑地区构造电性特征与A型俯冲模式[J]. 石油实验地质, 1995, 17(3):238-248)
    [14]
    WEI Wenbo, JIN Sheng, YE Gaofeng, et al. Conductivity structure of crust and upper mantle beneath the northern Tibetan Plateau:Results of super-wide band magnetotelluric sounding[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2006, 49(4):1215-1225(魏文博, 金胜, 叶高峰, 等. 藏北高原地壳及上地幔导电性结构elax——elax超宽频带大地电磁测深研究结果[J]. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(4):1215-1225)
    [15]
    YAN Yongli, MA Xiaobing, CHEN Yun, et al. The study of magnetotelluric sounding on Coqên-Xainza profile in Tibet[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2012, 55(8):2636-2642(闫永利, 马晓冰, 陈赟, 等. 西藏错勤elax——elax申扎剖面大地电磁测深研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 2012, 55(8):2636-2642)
    [16]
    ZHANG Fan, WEI Wenbo, JIN Sheng, et al. Ocean coast effect on land-side magnetotelluric data in the vicinity of the coast[J]. Chin. J. Geophys., 2012, 55(12):4023-4035(张帆, 魏文博, 金胜, 等. 海岸效应对近海地区大地电磁测深数据畸变作用研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 2012, 55(12):4023-4035)
    [17]
    BOTELER D H, PIRJOLA R, TRICHTCHENKO L. On calculating the electric and magnetic fields produced in technological systems at the Earth's surface by a "wide" electrojet[J]. J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys., 2000, 62(14):1311-1315
    [18]
    XU Wenyao. Physics of Electromagnetic Phenomena of the Earth[M]. Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China Press, 2009(徐文耀. 地球电磁现象物理学[M]. 合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社, 2009)
    [19]
    AMM O. Ionospheric elementary current systems in spherical coordinates and their application[J]. J. Geomag. Geoelec., 1997, 49(7):947-955
    [20]
    WU Weili, LIU Lianguang. Calculation Method for geoelectric field in mid-and low-latitude area based on sparse geomagnetic data[J]. Chin. J. Space Sci., 2013, 33(6):617-623(吴伟丽, 刘连光. 基于稀疏地磁数据的中低纬度磁暴感应地电场的算法研究[J]. 空间科学学报, 2013, 33(6):617-623)
    [21]
    SHI Daoji. Practical Extreme Value Statistical Methods[M]. Tianjin:Tianjin Science and Technology Press, 2006(史道济. 实用极值统计方法[M]. 天津:天津科学技术出版社, 2006)
    [22]
    TIWARI R C, YANG Y Z, ZALKIKAR J N. Bayes estimation for the Pareto failure-model using Gibbs sampling[J]. IEEE Trans. Reliab., 1996, 45(3):471-476
    [23]
    MOHAMMED AHMED A O, IBRAHIM N A. Bayesian survival estimator for Weibull distribution with censored data[J]. J. Appl. Sci., 2011, 11(2):393-396
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article Views(549) PDF Downloads(366) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return