Volume 39 Issue 3
May  2019
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MENG Chen, LU Jianyong, WANG Ming, GU Chunli, JI Haisheng. Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(3): 303-309. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303
Citation: MENG Chen, LU Jianyong, WANG Ming, GU Chunli, JI Haisheng. Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(3): 303-309. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303

Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303
  • Received Date: 2018-02-27
  • Rev Recd Date: 2018-06-29
  • Publish Date: 2019-05-15
  • The transport time is defined as the interval time between the occurrence of CME and the maximum value of the geomagnetic storm. In view of the 89 CME-Dst events collected from 1997 to 2015, the impact of CME speed, energy, and flare type on the transport time is analyzed. Using the non-linear fitting and the nonlinear regression of the Support Vector Machine (SVM), the Curve Fitting (CF) model and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for the CME transport time are built. In these models, 62 CME-Dst events during 1997-2006 are used as model input, and the remaining 27 CME-Dst events are used to test the model prediction. The results show that the prediction accuracies both of CF model and SVM model reach at about 85.2%, and the average absolute error of CF model is 13.77h while the SVM model is 13.88h. Comparing with the ECA model (its prediction accuracy is 77.8%, and the average absolute error is 14.55h), the accuracy of these two models is higher and the error is smaller than that of the ECA model. Therefore, CF model and SVM model can predict accurately the geomagnetic storm explosion with 1~5 days in advance.

     

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