Volume 39 Issue 6
Nov.  2019
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LIU Wei, GONG Jiancun, LIU Siqing, WANG Ronglan. Assessment of Thermosphere Models Based on Orbit Prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(6): 757-763. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.06.757
Citation: LIU Wei, GONG Jiancun, LIU Siqing, WANG Ronglan. Assessment of Thermosphere Models Based on Orbit Prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(6): 757-763. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.06.757

Assessment of Thermosphere Models Based on Orbit Prediction

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.06.757
  • Received Date: 2018-09-25
  • Rev Recd Date: 2019-02-27
  • Publish Date: 2019-11-15
  • The LEO prediction error was studied with thermosphere models including J77, DTM78, MSIS00, JB2008 and the CHAMP derived density. In precise orbit prediction without prior information, the performance of the thermosphere model may be erased by uncertainties of those parameters such as the area mass ratio, and the prediction error cannot be used as the criteria for performance evaluation of those models. The prior information can be used to improve the accuracy of those orbit predictions, especially during the geomagnetic disturbed period. The orbit prediction error is averagely about 10%~25% compared with the situation without prior information. The main defects of thermosphere models exist currently in the geomagnetic disturbed period. The difference between models is that JB2008 model can be compensated by single frequency plus linear items, but J77, DTM78 models can't. This paper introduces new insights to the precise orbit prediction under different conditions, which can be used as tutorial materials to provide reference for the engineering practice of space debris collision warning.

     

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