TLE Prediction Accuracy Improvement and its Application in Collision Warning

Two Line Elements (TLE) is the only publicly available and most complete data sets of Earth orbit objects. The prediction accuracy with SGP4/SDP4 is limited. The TLE+SGP4/SDP4 prediction error sources and improvement method with historical TLE data were analyzed. A pseudo-observation data generation method was introduced. The fitting period of TLE data and the value of Δt used in generating pseudo-observation are dependent on the orbital altitude. An effective area-to-mass ratio (A/M) determination method was obtained. GPS satellites prediction error in case of η estimated or not are also tested. The improved prediction accuracy is prominent in the application of US and Russian satellites collide event. Objects were selected and their orbit were predicted with an improved TLE-numerical method. The statistical results show that the TLE prediction accuracy is greatly improved. The application of the improved TLE and possible problems were also discussed.