The Fuzzy Classification of the Solar Cycle and the Prediction for the 22nd Solar Cycle
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摘要: 本文根据模糊集合理论, 讨论了太阳周的分类和预报.利用模糊聚类分析方法对22周作出的预报如下:21周降段长。Δt降(21周)=8或9年;22周开始于1987或1988年;22周初始谷值RM头(22周)=4.3;22周上升段长。Δt升(22周)=4年;22周极大年均值RM(22周)=118.9;22周降段长。Δt降(22周)=(6.5)或8年.Abstract: In this paper, on the basis of fuzzy set theory the classification and the prediction of solar cycles are discussed. By using the method of fuzzy cluster analysis, a prediction for the 22nd solar cycle has been made. The results are as follows:The length of the declining time for the 21st cycle is 8 or 9 years; the begining time for the 22nd cycle is the year 1987 or 1988; the first minimum of the year, s mean value of the relative number is 4.3; the length of the ascending duration for the 22nd cycle is 4 years; the maxima of the year, s mean value of the relative number is 118.9; the length of the declining duration for the 22nd cycle is 6.5 or 8 years.
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