PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES FOLLOWING SOLAR PROTON EVENTS (SPEs) WITH A NEURAL NETWORK
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摘要: 通过分析几十个典型太阳质子事件表明,具有以下特征的质子事件其后1-3天内一般有强烈地磁扰动发生:1.质子耀班级别和亮度较大(3B以上);2.质子通量在上升阶段增加很快,而在下降阶段相对来说衰减也很快(尤其是在峰值附近);3.电子通量远远大于质子通量并且和质子通量有相似的变化规律.在此基础上,利用神经网络预报太阳质子事件发生后3天内地磁扰动的趋势.Abstract: By analyzing some typical SPEs, it has been found that geomagnetic disturbances are closely associated with SPEs. A SPE with the following features is most likely to be followed by a geomagnetic disturbance:1) There exists an intense proton flare. 2) The proton flux rises rapidly from background to peak and then declines in a relatively quick way. The same applies to the electron flux. 3) The electron flux is much greater than the proton flux. On the above basis, the neural network is designed tO predict the geomagnetic activity in the successive 3 days after the occurrence of a SPE.
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Key words:
- Geomagnetic distrubance /
- Solar proton event /
- Neural network /
- Prediction
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