Reliability Analysis of Space Tether Collision Based on Fuzzy Stress-strength Model
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摘要: 空间系绳系统由于其特殊的组成结构日益受到关注，空间系绳的碰撞可靠性研究是系绳任务设计的重要一环.本文采用可靠性分析基本原理中的应力—强度模型，根据近地轨道的空间碎片通量和泊松分布方法，进行空间系绳在轨碰撞可靠性的研究分析.根据对空间系绳碰撞可靠性有影响的系绳结构因素，即单股系绳的直径、长度，双股系绳的绳间距、碰撞角等，对空间碎片撞击切割系绳后碰撞点处的系绳剩余截面进行建模，利用模糊应力—强度模型计算空间系绳在撞击后发生毁灭性碰撞的概率，进而根据泊松方法计算空间系绳在轨可靠性随时间的变化，通过仿真分析，对比不同结构空间系绳的有效在轨时间.Abstract: Space tether system has attracted more and more attention from various countries because of its special structure. The collision reliability research of space tether is an important part of the mission design of space tether. In this paper, the stress-strength model is used to analyze the reliability of space tethers on-orbit collision based on the space debris flux and Poisson distribution on low-Earth orbit. Several tether structure factors those have an impact on the collision reliability of space tethers are proposed, such as tether's diameter and length for single-strand space tether, and tether's distance between ropes, collision angle for double-strand tether. Firstly, the tether residual cross-section at the collision point is modeled after the space debris impacts and cuts the tether. Then, according to the fuzzy stress-strength model analysis, the tether destructive collision probability is calculated. Finally, according to the Poisson method, the reliability of the space tether is calculated over time, and the simulation analysis is carried out to compare the effective on-orbit time of space tether with different structures.
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Key words:
- Fuzzy reliability design /
- Stress-strength model /
- Debris flux model /
- Poisson method
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