Comparative analysis of four neural network methods for TEC modeling during ionospheric magnetic storms
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摘要: 电离层总电子含量(TEC)是描述电离层的重要参数,然而TEC建模的研究多集中在电离层平静期,应用在磁暴期的研究相对较少。针对这个问题,本文使用LSTM、BiLSTM、CNN-LSTM-Attention及CNN-BiLSTM-Attention神经网络模型,对2002~2022年磁暴期的多种时空数据进行训练,得到适用于磁暴期的四种TEC预报模型。然后,利用2023年两场磁暴的实测TEC对四种预报模型的精度和可靠性进行验证,结果表明:CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型在磁暴期的预测效果明显优于其他三种模型,其均方根误差(RMSE)在4.732~10.45 TECu之间,同时与参考值存在较强的相关性,决定系数(R2)在0.682~0.949之间,且拟合函数的斜率最接近于1。
Abstract: The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is an important parameter to describe the ionosphere. However, the study of TEC modeling mainly focuses on the calm period of the layer, and its application in the period of magnetic storms is relatively rare. To solve this problem, this paper uses LSTM, BiLSTM, CNN-LSTM-Attention and CNN-BiLSTM-Attention neural network models to train various spatio-temporal data of magnetic storm periods from 2002 to 2022, and obtains four TEC prediction models suitable for magnetic storm periods. Then, the accuracy and reliability of the four prediction models were verified by the measured TEC of two magnetic storms in 2023. The results showed that the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model was significantly prior to the other three models in predicting the magnetic storm period, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was between 4.732 and 10.45 TECu. At the same time, there is a strong correlation with the reference value, the coefficient of determination (R2) is between 0.682 and 0.949, and the slope of the fitting function is closest to 1. -
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