Analysis of COSMOS 1408 debris cloud evolution
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摘要: 地球轨道的卫星和航天器越来越多,近地空间密度不断增大。据统计,现有空间碎片主要来源于约640次的空间事件。研究卫星解体事件对维持太空环境安全具有重要意义。2021年11月15日,俄罗斯进行了一场反卫星试验,摧毁了一颗报废卫星COSMOS 1408卫星。事件产生了一片由约1800个可跟踪碎片组成的空间碎片云,碎片云高度区间在200~1400km,且随时间演变不断扩散,威胁LEO的卫星和航天器的安全运行。本文基于美国SSN发布的关于COSMOS 1408解体事件碎片的TLE,利用SGP4模型对该空间碎片云进行演化分析,主要包括碎片云的编目数量和时空变化、主要轨道参数变化、解体碎片对太空环境的影响并以碎片威胁到ISS并迫使后者机动规避碎片的四次事件为例,探究其演化规律以及带来的影响,初步还原了COSMOS 1408反卫星事件空间碎片云的演化过程以及造成的影响。Abstract: There are more and more satellites and spacecrafts in earth orbit, and the density of near-earth space is increasing. According to statistics, the existing space debris mainly comes from about 640 space events. The study of satellite disintegration events is of great significance to maintain the safety of space environment. On November 15, 2021, Russia conducted an anti-satellite test and destroyed an abandoned satellite COSMOS 1408. The event produced a space debris cloud composed of about 1800 traceable debris. The height of the debris cloud is between 200 and 1400 km, and it continues to spread over time, threatening the safe operation of LEO satellites and spacecraft. Based on the TLE of COSMOS 1408 disintegration event debris released by SSN in the United States, this paper uses the SGP4 model to analyze the evolution of the space debris cloud, including the number of catalogs and temporal and spatial changes of the debris cloud, the changes of the main orbital parameters, and the impact of the disintegration debris on the space environment. Taking the four events that the debris threatened the ISS and forced the latter to maneuver to avoid the debris as an example, the evolution law and the impact are explored, and the evolution process and the impact of the COSMOS 1408 anti-satellite event space debris cloud are preliminarily restored.
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