Application of improved model based on LSTM in ionospheric TEC forecast
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摘要: 电离层延迟是全球卫星导航定位中重要的误差源之一,提高电离层TEC预报精度对改善卫星导航定位精度极其重要。本文联合滑动窗口和长短时记忆神经网络,以滑动窗口算法对输入序列数据集不断更新并测试不同输入序列长度对应模型的精度,最后以预测值来更新输入数据序列的最后10%,进而构建TEC预报模型。验证结果表明,该模型在平静期和磁暴期预测残差绝对值小于5TECu的比例均达85%以上,较传统LSTM模型对应值占比增加了49%、71%,均方根误差低31%、35%;其预报结果的平均绝对误差减少25%、32%。Abstract: Ionospheric delay is one of the important error sources in global satellite navigation and positioning. Improving the prediction accuracy of ionospheric TEC is very important to improve the accuracy of satellite navigation and positioning. This paper combines the sliding window and long short-term memory neural network, uses the sliding window algorithm to continuously update the input sequence data set and test the accuracy of the model corresponding to different input sequence lengths. Finally, the input parameters are updated with 10% of the input data to construct a TEC prediction model. Verification results show that the proportion of absolute values of predicted residuals of the model less than 5TECu both in the calm period and magnetic storm period reached more than 85%, an increase of 49% and 71% compared with the corresponding values of the traditional LSTM model, and the root mean square error was 31% and 35% lower; the average absolute error of its forecast results was reduced by 25% and 32%.
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