A multiplicative model with frequency-domain features superimposed on time-domain mutations for predicting ionospheric TEC methods
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摘要: 电离层总电子含量(Total Electronic Content,TEC)是电离层的重要特征参数,对导航误差修正等应用有较大影响,但是目前的电离层TEC预报精度无法完全满足需求,尤其在太阳风暴期间的精度和提前量方面存在不足。论文针对区域电离层TEC预报需要,综合考虑电离层TEC的频域和时域特性,根据电离层TEC的变化受太阳活动影响存在趋势性、周期性和突发性的特征,在分析太阳活动高低年趋势基础上,在频域用多个周期长度解析电离层TEC变化,在时域上考虑地磁暴等因素对电离层TEC的突发性影响,将Dst指数、经纬度作为输入参数,对各个区域磁层-电离层耦合情况进行特异性建模。实验结果表明,在地磁平静时期,本文方法7天预报值的RMSE优于1.262 TECU,1天预报值的RMSE优于1.094 TECU;在地磁活跃时期,7天预报值的RMSE优于4.186 TECU,1天预报值的RMSE优于4.115 TECU。本文建立了具备7天提前量的预报模型,方法在预报精度和时效方面表现良好。Abstract: Total Electronic Content (TEC) is an important characteristic parameter of the ionosphere, which has a great influence on the navigation error correction and other applications, but the current ionospheric TEC prediction accuracy cannot fully meet the demand, and there are deficiencies in the accuracy and lead time. The paper focuses on the needs of regional ionospheric TEC forecasting, comprehensively considers the characteristics of ionospheric TEC in both frequency and time domains, analyzes the ionospheric TEC changes in multiple cycle lengths in the frequency domain according to the characteristics of trend, periodicity, and suddenness of the changes in the ionospheric TEC affected by solar activities, considers the suddenness of the geomagnetic storms and other factors on the ionospheric TEC in the time domain, and considers the Dst index and latitude/longitude as the input parameters for forecasting. forecast input parameters, and train the specificity of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling in each region. The experimental results show that in the geomagnetically quiet period, the RMSE of the 7-day forecast is better than 1.262 TECU, and the RMSE of the 1-day forecast is better than 1.094 TECU; in the geomagnetically active period, the RMSE of the 7-day forecast is better than 4.186 TECU, and the RMSE of the 1-day forecast is better than 4.115 TECU. model, and the method performs well in terms of forecasting accuracy and timing.
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