深空探测自主运行的一种可信性技术体系

党炜; 骆军委; 郑作环; 敖亮; 李博; 李鹏; 熊盛阳; 许鹏程; 宋恒旭; 胡剑桥; 冯业为

doi:10.11728/cjss2024.02.2023-0138

深空探测自主运行的一种可信性技术体系

doi: 10.11728/cjss2024.02.2023-0138 cstr: 32142.14.cjss2024.02.2023-0138

党炜^{1, 7, 8, 9,},
骆军委^{2, 8, 9},
郑作环^{3, 8},
敖亮^{1, 8, 9},
李博^{4, 8, 9},
李鹏^{1, 8},
熊盛阳⁵,
许鹏程^{3, 8},
宋恒旭^{6, 9},
胡剑桥⁶,
冯业为^{1, 8}

1.
中国科学院空间应用工程与技术中心　北京　100094
2.
中国科学院半导体研究所半导体超晶格国家重点实验室　北京　100083
3.
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院应用数学研究所　北京　100190
4.
中国科学院微电子研究所　北京　100029
5.
中国运载火箭技术研究院　北京　100076
6.
中国科学院力学研究所非线性力学国家重点实验室　北京　100190
7.
中国科学院空间科学与应用总体部　北京　100094
8.
中国科学院可靠性保障中心　北京　100094
9.
中国科学院大学　北京　100049

基金项目: 中国空间站工程应用与发展阶段空间应用系统总体专项(T014191), 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0610100), 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA30000000), 中国科学院关键技术人才项目(T103201), 中国科学院可靠性保障中心种子基金项目(CRAC-ZZKT-KY-2022-03)共同资助

详细信息

作者简介:

党炜：男, 1982年10月出生于陕西省富平县, 现为中国科学院空间应用工程与技术中心正高级工程师、责任科学家, 中国科学院可靠性保障中心总工程师等, 主要研究方向为可靠性系统工程、COTS元器件空间应用等. E-mail: dangwei@csu.ac.cn

中图分类号: V524
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-11-28
- 录用日期: 2024-03-27
- 修回日期: 2024-03-21
- 网络出版日期: 2024-03-27

Dependability Technology System for Autonomous Operation of Deep Space Exploration

DANG Wei^{1, 7, 8, 9
,},
LUO Junwei^{2, 8, 9},
ZHENG Zuohuan^{3, 8},
AO Liang^{1, 8, 9},
LI Bo^{4, 8, 9},
LI Peng^{1, 8},
XIONG Shengyang⁵,
XU Pengcheng^{3, 8},
SONG Hengxu^{6, 9},
HU Jianqiao⁶,
FENG Yewei^{1, 8}

1.
Technology and Engineering Center for Space Utilization, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094
2.
State Key Laboratory of Superlattices and Microstructures, Institute of Semiconductors, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100083
3.
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
4.
Institute of Microelectronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029
5.
China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076
6.
State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
7.
General Establishment of Space Science and Application, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094
8.
Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Reliability Assurance Center, Beijing 100094
9.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

摘要

摘要: 未认知与不确定性是深空探测任务的基本特征. 本文基于战略导向的体系化基础研究, 建立了一种面向科学价值最大化的探测场景和以可靠性为核心技术基础的深空探测自主运行可信性技术体系. 分析研究了深空探测场景下的可靠性概念; 面向精确感知、最优计算、准确决策、快精准执行的目标要素, 提出了深空探测自主运行的可信性体系框架以及“需求－认知－工程”总体技术架构; 针对自主运行可信性的关键技术难点, 开展了可靠性导向的多物理场、强耦合白盒建模, 复杂网络故障传播机制分析, COTS元器件深空探测应用的高可靠保证, 以及“模型+数据+知识”一体的融合机制分析等研究. 对该技术体系的关键技术验证策略及其最小系统在卫星星座中的应用进行了验证, 结果表明, 所提出的技术体系具有较高的工程价值.
- 深空探测 /
- 自主运行 /
- 可靠性 /
- 可信性 /
- 多物理场 /
- 复杂网络
Abstract: The “unrecognized and uncertain” is the basic feature of deep space exploration missions. A technology system of dependability for autonomous operation in deep space exploration was proposed based on the principle of “scientific value maximization”-oriented exploration and reliability as the core technology. The concept of reliability in the scenario of deep space exploration was analyzed and involved. A dependability systematic framework for autonomous operation of deep space exploration and its overall technical architecture of “demand-cognition-engineering” were proposed, which include precise sensing, optimal calculation, accurate decision-making and “quickly, precisely, exactly” execution. The reliability-oriented multi-physics deeply coupled white-box modeling and its high-fidelity technology, the complex network fault propagation mechanism and its high-confidence technology, the high-reliability assurance route for the application of COTS components in deep space exploration, the fusion mechanism of “model + data + knowledge” and its dynamic evolution technology for multi-agent health state management based on multiple fetal sensing phenomena were studied. The key technology of this technical system and the application verification of its minimum system in the satellite constellation were introduced, and the results show that the technology system proposed has high engineering value.
- Deep space exploration /
- Autonomous operation /
- Reliability /
- Dependability /
- Multi-physics /
- Complex network

HTML全文

图 1 需求导向的粗/精协同运行架构

Figure 1. Operating architecture of demand-oriented “coarse/precise collaboration”

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 DMAODSE的“需求－认知－工程”总体技术架构

Figure 2. General technology architecture of “demand-cognition-engineering” for DMAODSE

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 COTS元器件空间应用发展历程及趋势分析

Figure 3. Development history and trends of COTS components used in space applications

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 DRO-G-DMAODSEmin配置项运行架构

Figure 4. Operating architecture of DRO-G-DMAODSEmin configuration item

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表 1 经典可靠性定义在深空探测场景中的适用性分析

Table 1. Availability analysis for classic definition of reliability in deep space exploration scenarios

定义要素	经典定义	本文场景适用性分析	说明
对象	设备	适用	具体为探测器系统
条件	规定的条件	不完全适用	存在无法规定的未认知、不确定性的条件
时间	规定的时间	不完全适用	深空探测科学任务自主运行按需尽可能长
功能	规定功能	适用	–
能力	完成能力	适用	–

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 “抢时间”需求导向的DMAODSE关键技术难点分析

Table 2. Analysis of key technical difficulties in time margin oriented DMAODSE

应用场景需求	目标要素	策略	技术风险或难点
抢时间需求粗精协同策略	精确感知	可靠性导向的白盒模型(R-WBM)	模型如何实现“高保真”
	最优计算	复杂网络模型及其故障传播机制	模型如何实现高置信
	最优计算	先进COTS元器件的深空应用	系统如何实现高可靠
	准确决策	“模型+数据+知识”三位一体融合	决策如何提高准确性
	快精准执行	继承成熟机制	–

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 DMAODSE关键技术验证平台与方法

Table 3. Verification platforms and methods for key technologies of DMAODSE

目标要素	验证关键技术	验证平台	验证方法
精确感知	可靠性导向的白盒模型(R-WBM)	中国空间站应用22号指南	理论与实验
最优计算	复杂网络模型及其故障传播机制	地面	理论与试验
最优计算	先进COTS元器件的深空应用	中国空间站应用、DRO星座	理论与试验
准确决策	“模型+数据+知识”三位一体融合	地面、DRO星座	理论、实验与试验
快精准执行	继承成熟机制	–	–

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 典型模拟数据下的DRO-G-DMAODSEmin配置项诊断性能评价

Table 4. Diagnostic performance evaluation of DRO-G-DMAODSEmin configuration item under typical simulation data

典型方法	准确率	精确率	召回率
Deep forest	0.9773	0.9457	0.9330
Random forest	0.9785	0.9512	0.9355
LightGBM	0.9797	0.9338	0.9528
XGBoost	0.9821	0.9371	0.9642

下载: 导出CSV

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