F10.7指数与Ap指数短期预报检验
doi: 10.11728/cjss2024.03.2023-0121 cstr: 32142.14.cjss2024.03.2023-0121
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陈安芹 女, 1980年1月出生于山东省昌乐县, 现为国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心)高级工程师、首席预报员, 主要研究方向为太阳活动区特征、空间天气预报等. E-mail: chenanqin@cma.gov.cn -
赵海娟 女, 1977年4月出生于河北省滦南县, 现为国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心)高级工程师, 主要从事太阳活动预报研究及空间天气预报工作. E-mail: zhaohj@cma.gov.cn
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通讯作者:
Verification of Short-term Forecast for F10.7 Index and Ap Index
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摘要: 国家空间天气监测预警中心(NCSW)从2004年7月1日开始对用户提供空间天气预报服务, 其中包括未来24 h, 48 h和72 h的F10.7指数和Ap指数预报. 本文对2005－2022年NCSW的F10.7指数和Ap指数的预报结果进行了检验. 通过检验发现, NCSW预报的未来24 h, 48 h和72 h的F10.7指数平均比实测值偏小; 未来24 h的Ap指数平均比实测值偏大, 未来48 h和72 h的Ap指数平均比实测值偏小. 太阳活动水平越高, F10.7指数的预报误差越大; 但是Ap指数预报误差最大值反而出现在太阳活动下降段. 此外, 通过与跟报模型、14天回归模型、14天回归修正模型、27天回归模型和27天回归修正模型等简单的统计预报模型对比发现, NCSW的预报性能整体优于简单的统计预报模型. 对于F10.7指数, NCSW的预报性能略好于跟报模型, 明显好于4个回归模型, 但是当太阳活动水平较高时, 跟报模型未来72 h的F10.7指数预报性能优于NCSW; 对于Ap指数, 多数情况下, NCSW的预报性能明显优于统计预报模型, 但是地磁扰动剧烈时, 27天回归模型预报的Ap指数反而比NCSW的预报更准确.Abstract: The National Center for Space Weather (NCSW) has been providing space weather forecasts for the next 24 h, 48 h and 72 h since 1 July 2004. In this paper, the average error, the average absolute error, the skill score, the median error and the interquartile range of error are used to verify the F10.7 index and Ap index forecasted by NCSW from 2005 to 2022. It was found that the F10.7 index forecasted by NCSW for the next 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h are usually smaller than the observed F10.7 index; the Ap index for the next 24 h is usually higher than the observed Ap index, while Ap index forecasted for the next 48 h and 72 h are usually lower than the observed Ap index. The higher the level of solar activity, the greater the forecast error of the F10.7 index is. However, the maximum forecast error of the Ap index occurs in the declining period of solar activity. In addition, we compared the forecasts of NCSW with the simple statistical models such as the persistence model, 14 days recurrence model, 14 days corrected recurrence model, 27 days recurrence model, and 27 days corrected recurrence model, and found that the forecast performance of NCSW is usually better than that of five simple statistical models. For the F10.7 index, the forecast performance of NCSW is slightly better than that of the persistence model, and significantly better than that of the four recurrence models. However, when the solar activity level is high, the persistence model's performance of the F10.7 index for the next 72 h is better than that of NCSW. For the Ap index, in most cases, the performance of NCSW is significantly better than that of statistical models. However, when geomagnetic disturbances are severe, the Ap index forecasted by the 27 days recurrence model is more accurate than that forecasted by NCSW.
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Key words:
- Space weather /
- Forecast verification /
- F10.7 index /
- Ap index
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图 1 2014年F10.7指数的观测值和NCSW预报的未来24 h, 48 h和72 h的F10.7指数分布
Figure 1. Distribution of the observed F10.7 index and the F10.7 index forecasted by NCSW for the next 24 h, 48 h and 72 h during 2014
图 2 NCSW和不同统计预报模型预报的F10.7指数的平均误差、平均绝对误差和技术评分
Figure 2. Mean errors, absolute errors and skill scores of F10.7 index forecasted by NCSW and different statistical models
图 3 2005－2022年F10.7指数预报值的平均绝对误差分布
Figure 3. Distribution of the mean absolute errors for the forecast of F10.7 index from 2005 to 2022
图 4 2005－2022年F10.7指数预报值的技术评分分布
Figure 4. Distribution of the skill scores of forecasted F10.7 index from 2005 to 2022
图 5 2005－2022年不同F10.7指数观测值对应的预报误差分布
Figure 5. Errors conditional on the observed F10.7 index from 2005 to 2022
图 6 NCSW和不同统计预报模型预报的Ap指数的平均误差、平均绝对误差和技术评分
Figure 6. Mean errors, mean absolute errors and skill scores of Ap index forecasted by NCSW and different statistical models
图 7 2005－2022年Ap指数预报值的平均绝对误差分布
Figure 7. Distribution of the mean absolute errors for the forecast of Ap index from 2005 to 2022
图 8 2005－2022年Ap指数预报值的技术评分分布
Figure 8. Distribution of the skill scores of forecasted Ap index from 2005 to 2022
图 9 2005－2022年不同Ap指数观测值对应的预报误差分布
Figure 9. Errors conditional on the observed Ap index from 2005 to 2022
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