Mid-term Forecasting Study of Solar F10.7Index Using LSTM-NN Hybrid Model
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摘要: 针对现有基于统计分析与机器学习的时间序列预测方法在处理太阳F10.7指数序列时,难以同步兼顾其时序依赖性与非线性特征的关键问题,特别是太阳活动峰年期间射电爆发事件导致的指数异常波动及相应预测误差显著高于谷年的现象,本文提出了一种太阳F10.7指数中期预测方法。该方法创新性地融合长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory network)与全连接神经网络(NN),并引入太阳黑子数(SSN)相关影响因子,搭建了基于LSTM-NN的多输入变量驱动的混合预测模型。利用第24太阳活动周的F10.7指数实测数据,开展提前7天的预测实验。结果表明,该模型预测相关系数达R=0.95,均方根误差(RMSE)为11.27 sfu,较单一输入变量模型预测误差降低7.5%,其中对太阳活动峰年区间的预测精度提升尤为显著(误差降低8.5%)。通过系统的分析与实验验证,证明该混合模型能有效刻画复杂太阳活动特征,充分挖掘SSN序列蕴含的信息价值,能显著提升F10.7指数序列预测的准确性与可靠性。
Abstract: Addressing the critical challenge that existing statistical analysis and machine learning-based time series forecasting methods struggle to simultaneously capture temporal dependencies and nonlinear characteristics in solar F10.7 cm flux time series—particularly the anomalous fluctuations caused by radio burst events during solar maximum years, which lead to significantly higher prediction errors compared to solar minimum years—this paper proposes a mid-term forecasting method for the solar F10.7 index. The method innovatively integrates Long Short-Term Memory (Long Short-Term Memory network) and fully connected Neural Networks (NN), and incorporates influential factors related to the Sunspot Number (SSN), constructing a hybrid prediction model driven by multiple input variables based on LSTM-NN. Using measured F10.7 data from Solar Cycle 24, seven-day-ahead prediction experiments were conducted. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a prediction correlation coefficient of R=0.95 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 11.27 sfu, reducing the prediction error by 7.5% compared to single-input-variable models, with particularly significant improvement in prediction accuracy during solar maximum intervals (error reduction of 8.5%). Through systematic analysis and experimental validation, it is proven that this hybrid model can effectively characterize complex solar activity features, fully leverage the informational value embedded in SSN sequences, and significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of F10.7 index time series forecasting.
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