Prediction of Low-Altitude Debris Orbit Decay Based on the Seq2Seq Model
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摘要: 低轨空间碎片数量持续增长,轨道衰减预报已成为空间安全与再入风险评估的关键任务。然而,两行根数(TLE)在低地轨道(LEO)噪声大且衰减过程中存在强非线性,导致传统方法长期外推误差显著。为此,本研究基于TLE数据构建等高度间隔时间序列,通过高度-时间散点拟合与固定高度步长反采样;同时利用序列映射(Seq2Seq)门控循环单元(GRU)多步衰减时间预测模型,采用编码器-解码器结构提取非线性衰减模式,实现不同高度段剩余寿命预测。以COSMOS 1408与COSMOS 2251解体碎片为样本的实验表明,模型在250km、300km、350km起始高度下平均绝对误差分别为0.088、0.142、0.587小时,350km高度段相对误差控制在10%–25%,显著优于SGP4,可为轨道拥挤度评估与再入时序分析提供有效支撑。Abstract: The number of low Earth orbit (LEO) space debris continues to rise, rendering orbital decay prediction a critical task for space safety and reentry risk assessment. However, Two-Line Elements (TLE) exhibit high noise in the LEO region, coupled with strong nonlinearity in the decay process, which results in considerable errors in the long-term extrapolation of traditional methods. To address this issue, this study constructs an equal-altitude interval time series based on TLE data via height-time scatter fitting and fixed-altitude step inverse sampling. Concurrently, a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) gated recurrent unit (GRU) multi-step decay time prediction model is employed, leveraging an encoder-decoder structure to extract nonlinear decay patterns and achieve remaining lifetime prediction for different altitude segments. Experiments conducted on debris from the COSMOS 1408 and COSMOS 2251 breakup events demonstrate that the model attains mean absolute errors of 0.088 h, 0.142 h, and 0.587 h at initial altitudes of 250 km, 300 km, and 350 km, respectively. The relative error at 350 km is constrained within the range of 10%–25%, significantly outperforming the SGP4 model. This proposed method provides effective support for orbital congestion assessment and reentry timing analysis.
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Key words:
- Space debris /
- Orbital decay /
- Seq2Seq /
- Low Earth Orbit /
- Time series
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