风云三号D星微波湿度计在台风“摩羯”预报中的效果解析
doi: 10.11728/cjss2025.02.2024-0201 cstr: 32142.14.cjss.2024-0201
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冯雨萱 女, 现为中国科学院国家空间科学中心博士研究生, 主要从事微波遥感探测与定量信息处理技术研究. E-mail: fengyuxuan22@mails.ucas.ac.cn -
何杰颖 女, 现为中国科学院国家空间科学中心研究员, 风云三号卫星微波湿度计与海洋卫星盐度辐射计副主任设计师、空间科学(二期)预先研究项目负责人, 主要从事星载微波辐射计设计与研制、定标技术及地球与行星探测定量反演研究. E-mail: hejieying@mirslab.cn
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马刚 男, 现为中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心正研高工, 风云卫星工程产品生成系统和仿真系统副主任设计师、兰州大学兼职教授, 主要从事气象卫星观测资料正演仿真和卫星资料数值同化等研究. E-mail: magang@cma.gov.cn
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Analysis of the Effect of the Fengyun-3D Satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS-II) Data Assimilation on Typhoon “YAGI” Forecast
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摘要: 2411号台风“摩羯”于2024年9月登陆中国东南沿海地区, 风云三号D星(FY-3D)微波湿度计(MWHS-II)成功监测到该台风. 本研究在天气研究与预报模式数据同化系统(Weather Research and Forecasting model Data Assimilation system, WRFDA)中构建了晴空条件下FY-3D MWHS-II资料三维变分同化框架, 通过设置118 GHz, 183 GHz单频段以及双频段联合同化及预报试验方案, 系统评估了MWHS-II资料同化对台风“摩羯”的强度、路径及降水预报效果. 试验表明, 同化FY-3D MWHS-II资料有效提升了分析场质量, 对台风强度、路径和降水的预报也产生了积极影响. 台风预报方面, 同化118 GHz和183 GHz通道对台风路径预报分别改进了17.18%和13.39%, 洋面区域的183 GHz同化更使得路径预报改进率达到14.59%; 降水预报方面, MWHS-II资料同化显著提升初期24 h内中小雨量级(<25 mm)预报命中率, 其中118 GHz通道对强降水(>50 mm)预报表现出独特优势; 183 GHz通道的改进效应在24 h后逐步显现, 而双频段联合同化方案展现出综合优势, 各量级降水的降水分数技能得分(Fractions Skill Scores, FSS)相比控制试验提升显著. FY-3D MWHS-II的118 GHz和183 GHz频段在不同预报要素上的差异化改进效果, 突显了FY-3D MWHS-II资料在区域台风数值预报中的独特应用价值及应用潜力.Abstract: The Fengyun-3D satellite (FY-3D) Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS-II) successfully monitored the Typhoon “YAGI” (2411). In this paper, a three-dimensional variational assimilation framework of FY-3D MWHS-II data in clear sky is constructed in WRFDA. By setting up a single-band and dual-band joint assimilation and prediction experiment scheme of 118 GHz and 183 GHz, the microwave data assimilation and the forecast effect on the intensity, path and precipitation of Typhoon “YAGI” are systematically evaluated. The experiment shows that the assimilation of FY-3D MWHS-II data effectively improves the quality of the analysis field, and also has a positive impact on the forecast of typhoon intensity, track and precipitation. For the typhoon forecast, the assimilation of 118 GHz and 183 GHz channels improved the typhoon path forecast by 17.18% and 13.39% respectively, and the assimilation of 183 GHz in the ocean area made the path forecast improve by 14.59%. For the precipitation forecast, the assimilation of MWHS-II data significantly improves the hit rate of medium and small rainfall levels (< 25 mm) in the initial 24 hours, among which the 118GHz channel has a unique advantage in forecasting heavy rainfall (> 50 mm); The improvement effect of 183 GHz channel gradually appeared after 24 hours, while the dual-band joint scheme showed comprehensive advantages, and the FSS score of precipitation in each magnitude was significantly improved compared with the control experiment. The differential improvement effect of FY-3D MWHS-II’s 118 GHz and 183 GHz frequency bands on different forecast elements highlights the unique application value and potential of FY-3 MWHS-II data in regional typhoon numerical forecast.
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图 1 FY-3D MWHS-II 118 GHz和183 GHz通道温度雅克比和湿度雅克比特征
Figure 1. Characteristics of temperature Jacobian and humidity Jacobian of FY-3D MWHS-II channels at 118 GHz and 183 GHz
图 2 同化及预报试验的网格设置. 背景为2024年9月4日17:06 UTC时FY-3D MWHS-II通道1 (89 GHz)的亮温分布
Figure 2. Grid setting of assimilation and forecast experiment, with the background of the brightness temperature of FY-3D MWHS-II Channel 1 (89 GHz) at 17:06 UTC on 4 September 2024
图 3 2024年9月4日18:00 UTC时FY-3D MWHS-II 通道7和通道15观测结果
Figure 3. Channel 7 and Channel 15 observations of FY-3D MWHS-II at 18:00 UTC on 4 September 2024
图 4 2024年9月5日18:00 UTC时4组试验在不同高度处的温度分析增量和温度背景场分布
Figure 4. Analysis increments and the background filed of temperature at different pressure levels for four experiments at 18:00 UTC on 5 September 2024
图 5 2024年9月5日18:00 UTC时4组试验在不同高度处的相对湿度分析增量和相对湿度背景场
Figure 5. Analysis increments and the background filed of relative humidity at different pressure levels for four experiments at 18:00 UTC on 5 September 2024
图 6 2024年9月5日18:00 UTC时4组试验在不同高度处的位势高度分析增量和位势高度背景场
Figure 6. Analysis increments and the background filed of geopotential height at different pressure levels for four experiments at 18:00 UTC on 5 September 2024
图 7 2024年9月5日18:00 UTC时4组试验在不同高度处的U风场分析增量和U风场背景场
Figure 7. Analysis increments and the background filed of the zonal vertical section of wind at different pressure levels for four experiments at 18:00 UTC on 5 September 2024
图 8 2024年9月5日18:00 UTC时4组试验在不同高度处的V风场分析增量和V风场背景场
Figure 8. Analysis increments and the background filed of the meridional vertical section of wind at different pressure levels for four experiments at 18:00 UTC on 5 September 2024
图 9 分析场 RMSE 的垂直廓线(以 ERA5 为参考)
Figure 9. Vertical profiles of RMSE of the analyzed field (with ERA5 as reference)
图 10 循环同化和确定性预报期间台风“摩羯”(2411)预报结果. (a)中心海平面气压变化, (b)台风移动路径. 空心圆表示同化分析后的结果, 实心圆表示预报结果
Figure 10. Forecast results of Typhoon “YAGI” (2411) during cyclic assimilation and deterministic forecast. (a) Central sea level pressure change, (b) typhoon moving path. Hollow circles represent the assimilation analysis results and solid circles represent the forecast results
图 11 各试验在确定性预报期间不同预报时效的RMSE垂直廓线(以 ERA5 为参考)
Figure 11. Vertical profiles of RMSE for different forecast timescales during deterministic forecasting for each experiment (with ERA5 as reference)
图 12 2024年9月5日18:00 UTC开始的24 h累计降水
Figure 12. 24 h cumulative precipitation from 18:00 UTC on 5 September 2024
图 13 2024年9月6日18:00 UTC开始的24 h累计降水
Figure 13. 24 h cumulative precipitation from 18:00 UTC on 6 September 2024
图 14 不同降水阈值下24 h累计降水在台风区域的FSS评分
Figure 14. FSS score of 24 h cumulative precipitation in typhoon area under different precipitation thresholds
表 1 FY-3D MWHS-II通道特性参数
Table 1. Channel characteristics of FY-3D MWHS-II
序号 中心频率/GHz 权重函数峰值高度/hPa 极化方式 主要探测目的 1 89.0 — V 背景微波辐射探测、降水检测 2 118.75±0.08 20 H 大气温度和降水参数垂直结构探测 3 118.75±0.2 60 H 4 118.75±0.3 100 H 5 118.75±0.8 250 H 6 118.75±1.1 300 H 7 118.75±2.5 700 H 8 118.75±3.0 — H 9 118.75±5.0 — H 10 150.0 — V 背景微波辐射探测、降水检测 11 183.31±1 350 H 大气湿度垂直结构探测 12 183.31±1.8 400 H 13 183.31±3 500 H 14 183.31±4.5 550 H 15 183.31±7 650 H 
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表 2 同化试验设置
Table 2. Assimilation experimental settings
试验名称 使用的观测资料 CTRL 仅同化常规观测资料 Exp.118 同化常规观测资料 + MWHS-II Channel 2～9 Exp.183 同化常规观测资料 + MWHS-II Channel 11～15 Exp.118+183 同化常规观测资料 + MWHS-II Channel 2～9 + Channel 11～15
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表 3 48 h确定性预报的中心海平面气压和路径的RMSE和预测改进率(Ratio)
Table 3. RMSE and ratio of central sea level pressure and path during the 48-hour deterministic forecast
试验名称 中心海平面气压 路径 洋面＋陆地 仅洋面 洋面＋陆地 仅洋面 RMSE/hPa Ratio/(%) RMSE/hPa $ \mathrm{R}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{o} $/(%) RMSE/km Ratio/(%) RMSE/km Ratio/(%) CTRL 40.5418 — 31.3296 — 116.9672 — 106.4815 — Exp.118 39.4163 2.78 33.3405 –6.42 96.8727 17.18 97.9256 8.04 Exp.183 40.0193 1.29 31.3021 0.087 101.3016 13.39 90.9416 14.59 Exp.118+183 40.6933 –0.37 30.2557 3.43 117.5214 –0.47 98.2435 7.74
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