COSMOS 1408解体碎片云演化分析

莫星健; 梁伟; 赵相雷; 雷祥旭; 赵有

doi:10.11728/cjss2025.04.2024-0089

COSMOS 1408解体碎片云演化分析

doi: 10.11728/cjss2025.04.2024-0089 cstr: 32142.14.cjss.2024-0089

莫星健^{1, 第,},
梁伟^2,,
赵相雷^1,,
雷祥旭^{1, 3, 4, ,},
赵有^4,

1.
山东理工大学建筑工程与空间信息学院　淄博　255000
2.
北京跟踪与通信技术研究所　北京　100094
3.
中国科学院精密测量科学与技术创新研究院精密大地测量与定位全国重点实验室　武汉　430071
4.
中国科学院国家天文台　北京　100101

基金项目: 山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2023MD098)、空间目标感知全国重点实验室2024年度开放基金项目(STA2024ZCA0102)和大地测量与地球动力学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLGED2024-3-5)共同资助

详细信息

作者简介:

莫星健　男, 2001年1月出生于贵州省黔南布依族苗族自治州, 山东理工大学测绘工程专业2024届本科生. 研究方向为空间态势感知. E-mail: 2861767932@qq.com

梁伟　男, 博士, 现为北京跟踪与通信技术研究所助理研究员, 主要从事空间态势感知、高分辨率重力场模型构建研究. E-mail: wliang@whu.edu.cn

赵相雷　男, 汉族, 山东省临沂市人, 山东理工大学测绘工程专业2023级本科生. 研究方向为空间态势感知. E-mail: 2425955376@qq.com

赵有　男, 博士, 现为中国科学院国家天文台研究员, 研究领域为空间碎片、卫星激光测距. E-mail: youzhao@nao.cas.cn

通讯作者:

雷祥旭　男, 山东泰安人, 博士, 现为山东理工大学测绘工程系硕士生导师, 主要研究方向包括空间态势感知、空间目标监测数据关联/定轨/编目和空间目标机动探测等. E-mail: xxlei@whu.edu.cn

中图分类号: V528, V419
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-07-10
- 录用日期: 2025-07-10
- 修回日期: 2024-12-30
- 网络出版日期: 2024-12-31

Analysis of COSMOS 1408 debris cloud evolution

MO Xingjian^{1, 第
,},
LIANG Wei^2
,,
ZHAO Xianglei^1
,,
LEI Xiangxu^{1, 3, 4
, ,},
ZHAO You^4
,

1.
School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000
2.
Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunication Technology, Beijing 100094
3.
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision, Measurement Science and Technology, CSA, Wuhan 430071
4.
National Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101

摘要

摘要: 地球轨道的航天器越来越多, 近地空间密度不断增大. 据统计, 现有空间碎片主要来源于约640次的解体事件. 研究卫星解体事件对维持空间环境安全具有重要意义. 2021年11月15日, 俄罗斯进行了一次反卫星试验, 摧毁了一颗报废卫星—COSMOS 1408卫星. 事件产生了一片由约1800个可跟踪碎片组成的碎片云, 碎片云分布于200～1400 km高度区间, 随时间扩散演化, 对低地球轨道(Low Earth Orbit, LEO)卫星运行构成威胁. 本文基于美国空间监视网(Space Surveillance Network, SSN)发布的关于COSMOS 1408解体事件碎片的两行轨道根数(Two Line Element, TLE), 利用简化广义摄动模型第四版(Simplified General Perturbations 4, SGP4)模型对该碎片云进行演化分析, 主要包括碎片云的编目数量和时空变化、主要轨道参数变化、解体碎片对空间环境的影响, 并以事件碎片导致的国际空间站(International Space Station, ISS)四次机动规避碎片事件为例, 探究其演化规律以及带来的影响, 初步还原了COSMOS 1408反卫星事件碎片云的演化过程以及造成的影响.
- 空间碎片云 /
- 卫星解体 /
- 碎片分布 /
- 环境影响 /
- 机动规避
Abstract: The number of spacecrafts in Earth orbit continues to increase, leading to growing density in near-Earth space. Statistics show that existing space debris primarily originates from approximately 640 breakup events. Studying satellite breakup events is crucial for maintaining space environment safety. On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted an anti-satellite test, destroying a defunct satellite — COSMOS 1408. The event generated a debris cloud consisting of approximately 1800 trackable debris distributed across altitudes ranging from 200 km to 1400 km, which disperses and evolves over time, posing threats to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite operations. Based on the Two-Line Element (TLE) data of COSMOS 1408 breakup event debris released by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), this paper utilizes the Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) model to analyze the evolution of the debris cloud. The analysis primarily covers the cataloged quantity and spatiotemporal changes of the debris cloud, variations in main orbital parameters, and the impact of breakup debris on the space environment. Taking the International Space Station’s (ISS) four debris avoidance maneuvers as examples, this study investigates the evolution patterns and resulting impacts, preliminarily reconstructing the evolution process of the COSMOS 1408 anti-satellite event debris cloud and its consequences.
- Space debris cloud /
- Satellite breakup /
- Debris distribution /
- Environmental impact /
- Maneuver avoidance
注释:

1) 第一作者

HTML全文

图 1 公开编目的COSMOS 1408碎片数量变化

Figure 1. Changes in the number of debris of COSMOS 1408 in public catalog

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图 2 COSMOS 1408每天新编目的空间碎片数量

Figure 2. Number of the newly catalogued space debris from COSMOS 1408 everyday

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图 3 STK软件展示COSMOS 1408编目碎片轨道时空分布

Figure 3. Orbit distribution of COSMOS 1408 debris cataloged simulated using STK

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图 4 碎片轨道近、远地点变化

Figure 4. Perigee and apogee height variations of debris orbits

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图 5 母体解体前后主要轨道参数变化

Figure 5. Main orbital elements variations of the parent body before and after the breakup event

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图 6 COSMOS 1408碎片数量与SSN公开编目目标数量变化

Figure 6. Changes in the number of COSMOS 1408 debris and public cataloged objects by SSN

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图 7 解体碎片、ISS、CSS、StarLink-1007轨道高度与运行周期分布

Figure 7. Distribution of orbit height and period of breakup debris, ISS, CSS and StarLink-1007

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图 8 机动前ISS与碎片在TCA前后10 min相对距离变化

Figure 8. Relative distance changes between ISS and debris 10 minutes before and after TCA pre-maneuver

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图 9 机动后 ISS与碎片在TCA前后10 min相对距离变化

Figure 9. Relative distance changes between ISS and debris 10 minutes before and after TCA post-maneuver

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表 1 母体解体前后轨道参数变化

Table 1. Orbital elements variations of the parent body before and after the breakup event

UTC	a/ m	e	i/(°)
2021/11/15	6851122.7	0.003	82.563
2021/11/29	6845709.0	0.004	82.571
差值	–5413.7	0.001	0.008

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 ISS, CSS, StarLink-1007, COSMOS 1408的基本信息

Table 2. Basic information of ISS, CSS, StarLink-1007, and COSMOS 1408

名称	国际代号	周期/min	倾角/(°)	远地点高度/km	近地点高度/km
COSMOS-1408	1982-092 A	91.92	82.56	376	362
ISS(ZARYA)	1998-067 A	92.93	51.64	425	411
CSS(TIANHE-1)	2021-035 A	92.17	41.47	384	378
STARLINK-1007	2019-074 A	95.59	53.05	548	546

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 ISS机动规避COSMOS 1408碎片的4次历史事件

Table 3. Four historical events of ISS maneuvering to avoid COSMOS 1408 debris

NORAD ID	机动时间
52590	2022年6月16日(估计)
51561	2022年10月24日19:25
49982	2023年3月14日11:54
52808	2023年8月6日02:03

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 基于机动前TLE 计算的ISS与COSMOS 1408碎片距离

Table 4. Distance between ISS and COSMOS 1408 debris based on pre-maneuver TLE

NORAD ID	机动时间	TCA	接近距离/km
NORAD ID	机动时间	TCA	机动前TLE	机动后TLE
52590	2022-06-16 00:00	2022-06-17 09:50:40	4.178	6812.028
51561	2022-10-24 19:25	2022/10/25 10:10:36	11.589	6184.815
49982	2023-03-14 11:54	2023-03-15 13:53:01	7.078	8354.855
52808	2023-08-06 02:03	2023-08-06 18:11:07	16.744	8941.203

下载: 导出CSV

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