Research on Global Ionospheric TEC Deep Learning Forecasting Based on Spectral Whitening Method Index Group Special Issue Commemorating the 90th Birthday of Professor Xiao Zuo
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摘要: 全球电离层总电子含量(TEC)的时空演化直接决定了全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)的定位精度与通信系统的可靠性,实现其精准预报是空间天气研究的关键挑战。然而,现有的电离层预报模型多依赖传统的太阳活动指数(如F10.7)与地磁指数(如Kp、Dst)作为驱动。这些传统指数往往存在时间分辨率低、更新不频繁等问题,从而限制了数据驱动模型在极端空间天气条件下的预报性能。针对上述问题,本研究提出了一种基于白谱法(SWM)的指数群,创新性地引入高纬扰动指数以全链条表征日地能量耦合过程,并结合DNN与3D Swin Transformer构建了两阶段深度学习预报框架。实验结果表明,SWM指数在保持与传统指数高度相关的同时,凭借其高频物理特征加速了模型收敛并提升了稳定性。对比测试显示,SWM驱动模型的性能显著优于IRI-2020经验模型,且能有效抑制长时效预报中的误差累积。研究证实,该体系凭借优异的实时更新能力与对极端扰动的捕捉能力,为构建高性能、业务化的全球空间天气预报系统提供了可靠的新路径。Abstract: The spatiotemporal evolution of the Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) directly determines the positioning accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and the reliability of communication systems. Achieving precise TEC prediction remains a key challenge in space weather research. However, existing ionospheric forecasting models predominantly rely on traditional solar activity indices and geomagnetic indices as drivers. These traditional indices often suffer from low temporal resolution and infrequent updates, thereby limiting the forecasting performance of data-driven models under extreme space weather conditions. To address these issues, this study proposes an Index Group based on the Spectral Whitening Method (SWM). By innovatively introducing a high-latitude disturbance index, the system provides a full-chain characterization of solar-terrestrial energy coupling. A two-stage deep learning framework, integrating 3D electron density reconstruction (DNN) and spatiotemporal prediction (3D Swin Transformer), was constructed for validation. Experimental results demonstrate that SWM indices maintain high correlation with traditional indices while significantly accelerating model convergence through their high-frequency physical features. The SWM-driven model significantly outperforms the IRI-2020 empirical model and effectively suppresses error accumulation in long-term forecasting. The study confirms that the SWM system, with its superior real-time update capability and sensitivity to disturbances, offers a novel technical pathway for operational global space weather forecasting.
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