PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAXIMUM AND PEAK TIME IN THE 22ND SOLAR CYCLE

Gao Mei-qing; Xiang Jing-tian; Kong Nan; Zhang Gui-qing

doi:10.11728/cjss1990.04.241

Volume 10 Issue 4

Dec. 1990

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Gao Mei-qing, Xiang Jing-tian, Kong Nan, Zhang Gui-qing. PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAXIMUM AND PEAK TIME IN THE 22ND SOLAR CYCLE[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 1990, 10(4): 241-246. doi: 10.11728/cjss1990.04.241

Citation:

Gao Mei-qing, Xiang Jing-tian, Kong Nan, Zhang Gui-qing. PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAXIMUM AND PEAK TIME IN THE 22ND SOLAR CYCLE[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 1990, 10(4): 241-246. doi: 10.11728/cjss1990.04.241

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PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAXIMUM AND PEAK TIME IN THE 22ND SOLAR CYCLE

doi: 10.11728/cjss1990.04.241

1.
Institute of Geophysics, Academia Sinica, Beijing
2.
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Academia Sinica, Beijing
3.
Computer Application Department, Cental Research Institute of Building and Construction of MMI, Beijing
4.
Beijing Observatory, Academia Sinica

Received Date: 1989-12-02
Rev Recd Date: 1900-01-01
Publish Date: 1990-12-24

Abstract

Abstract

This paper discusses the character and differences of the solar cycle and geomagnetic cycle from the 13th to the 22nd solar cycles. The self-excitation threshold autoregressive time series model and autoregression method using maximum entropy spectrum are used to simulate and predict that the peak time of the annual average value of geomagnetic aa index is in the spring of 1994 or the Autumn of 1993. The maximum in geomagnetic annual average aa index is 26-29. The 22nd geomagnetic cycle is expected to be a middle active cycle.
- Solar activity,
- Geomagnetic activity,
- Solar-terrestrial relationship,
- Prediction