Volume 29 Issue 2
Mar.  2009
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Kong Qingyan, Liu Wen, Jiao Peinan, Fan Junmei. One-step Ahead Prediction of f0F2 Based on Phase Space Reconstruction[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2009, 29(2): 208-212. doi: 10.11728/cjss2009.02.208
Citation: Kong Qingyan, Liu Wen, Jiao Peinan, Fan Junmei. One-step Ahead Prediction of f0F2 Based on Phase Space Reconstruction[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2009, 29(2): 208-212. doi: 10.11728/cjss2009.02.208

One-step Ahead Prediction of f0F2 Based on Phase Space Reconstruction

doi: 10.11728/cjss2009.02.208 cstr: 32142.14.cjss2009.02.208
  • Received Date: 1900-01-01
  • Rev Recd Date: 1900-01-01
  • Publish Date: 2009-03-15
  • One-step ahead prediction of critical frequency f0F2 is presented, using samples of about 5856 observations of f0F2 with 15-minute time resolution taken from a station in the low latitude, from March 2005 to April 2005. Based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic time series, and according to the theory that near trajectories have similar characteristics, the k-nearest neighbor method is taken to forecast f0F2 15 minutes ahead. Training method and self-adaptive-select method are attempted to define the neighbor numbers used for prediction, and for these neighbors, averaging method and regression ones are taken to treat them. The forecasting errors for those methods are compared. It is shown that one-step ahead forecasting method based on phase space reconstruction can reach high accuracy. In addition, the method has the advantage of easy to implementing with high processing speed. So it is quite suitable for quasi real-time prediction.

     

  • loading
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article Views(3771) PDF Downloads(1217) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return