Analysis of probability of the upset events on Fengyun-2C

It is widely known that satellites on geosynchronous orbit are suffering from the energetic electrons in the outer radiation belt which not only make dose effect but also cause the deep charging effect. There have been many reports on the failure of satellites that point to the deep changing effect. Although the geosynchronous orbit is not in the core region of the outer radiation belt and the flux of energetic electron is lower than that of medium Earth orbit, the satellites here always receive the bombardment of the electrons which meet the condition of deep charging effect, especially during the energetic electron storm. In recent years, as more and more sensitive electronic parts are used in the satellite, malfunctions and failures on geosynchronous satellites have become much popular, including Chinese meteorological satellites, namely Fengyun-2 satellites. According to comparison of the data of high energy electrons in geosynchronous orbit from GOES and the upset events on Fengyun-2 satellite, it is shown that all of the upset events on Fengyun-2 satellite occurred during the period of the high energy electron flux increasing, and the upset events is related with deep dielectric charging caused by high energy electrons. In this paper, statistic work that analyze the distribution of the upset events on Fengyun-2 satellite occurred from January 2005 to June 2008 was carried out. It was found that the high energy electron flux enhancement happened periodically, and a model for such distribution of the upset events with the high energy electron flux increasing events is established. The model gives a method to calculate the probability of the upset events through statistical result of the occurrence of the upset and the high energy electron flux enhancement.