Volume 33 Issue 2
Mar.  2013
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Song Dan, Xue Bingsen, Cheng Guosheng. Forecasting geomagnetic activity Kp index of space environment with Hp[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2013, 33(2): 151-157. doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.02.151
Citation: Song Dan, Xue Bingsen, Cheng Guosheng. Forecasting geomagnetic activity Kp index of space environment with Hp[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2013, 33(2): 151-157. doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.02.151

Forecasting geomagnetic activity Kp index of space environment with Hp

doi: 10.11728/cjss2013.02.151 cstr: 32142.14.cjss2013.02.151
  • Received Date: 2012-02-06
  • Rev Recd Date: 2012-09-14
  • Publish Date: 2013-03-15
  • Geomagnetic disturbance can cause a series of changes for near-Earth space environment, including the ionosphere and magnetosphere, and Kp index is the important reference index for disturbance of space weather. Hp component data monitored by GOES-8 satellite of geosynchronous orbit was used in this paper. By analyzing statistical relation between Kp index and Hp component width of fluctuation, it is shown that the change of Hp component and Kp index have good correlation. Based on the change of Hp component, Kp index in the same time interval is calculated, and then Kp index forecast model is established by means of regression analysis and RBF neural networks. Monitoring results show that the prediction method has certain validity and practicability especially that Kp index calculated by artificial neural networks is quite consistent with its measured values. By using this method, it is able to forecast geomagnetic disturbance quickly, and to provide reference in time for space weather guarantee not relying on the data from geomagnetic diction. In addition, China is going to launch FY-4 satellite, on which a magnetic field detector will be carried. Hence, this research will provide the foundation for application using FY-4 data in the future.

     

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