Volume 35 Issue 5
Sep.  2015
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Cang Zhongya, Xue Bingsen, Cheng Guosheng, Zhu Xiaolu. Dangerous Conjunction Analysis Of Space Objects Based On Random Point Simulation Method[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2015, 35(5): 596-602. doi: 10.11728/cjss2015.05.596
Citation: Cang Zhongya, Xue Bingsen, Cheng Guosheng, Zhu Xiaolu. Dangerous Conjunction Analysis Of Space Objects Based On Random Point Simulation Method[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2015, 35(5): 596-602. doi: 10.11728/cjss2015.05.596

Dangerous Conjunction Analysis Of Space Objects Based On Random Point Simulation Method

doi: 10.11728/cjss2015.05.596
  • Received Date: 2014-09-17
  • Rev Recd Date: 2015-03-08
  • Publish Date: 2015-09-15
  • The position, velocity and prediction error information of space objects can be obtained by using two-line element set and SGP4 model. Based on these results, a new method to calculate the collision probability is proposed, which is called the random point simulation method. There are two differences when this new method is compared with the traditional method of integral in conjunction plane. One is to concern the effects of error bias, which means the error ellipsoid no longer center on the predicted position. The other is to focus on simulating all possible conjunction situations and do not ignore error in each direction. The feasibility of this method is verified by analyzing cases, and results show that the maximum collision probability no longer appears in the time of closest approach because the error bias is not zero. Meanwhile, simulation results indicate that the positional relationship between two objects has also deviation in the direction of relative velocity, so the collision probability by random point simulation method is smaller than that of integral method. Different collision warning methods correspond to different warning thresholds, and 10-6 can be determined as the warning threshold of random point simulation method based on the case analysis in this paper.

     

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