Volume 37 Issue 3
May  2017
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CUI Yanmei, SHI Liqin, LIU Siqing. Study on the Short to Medium Term Forecast Model of Solar Proton Event[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 262-269. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.262
Citation: CUI Yanmei, SHI Liqin, LIU Siqing. Study on the Short to Medium Term Forecast Model of Solar Proton Event[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 262-269. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.262

Study on the Short to Medium Term Forecast Model of Solar Proton Event

doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.262
  • Received Date: 2015-12-17
  • Rev Recd Date: 2016-11-07
  • Publish Date: 2017-05-15
  • Solar proton event forecast is very important to guarantee the security of spacecrafts and astronauts. According to the short to medium term space mission, the solar proton fluences whose energy are greater than 10MeV, 30MeV and 60MeV are statistically analyzed. It is found that the probability of solar proton fluences has a normal distribution, and their standard deviations and expectations are logarithmic functions over different time period from Day 1 to 365. Consequently, a short to medium term forecast model of solar proton fluences is built, which can forecast the solar proton fluences whose energy are greater than 10MeV, 30MeV and 60MeV with certain confidence levels for different time period. Therefore, this model is very helpful to safely carry out the space mission which task period is less than 1 year.

     

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