Prediction Model for Ionospheric Total Electron Content Based on Deep Learning Recurrent Neural Networkormalsize

A 24h ahead forecasting model for ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) at Beijing station is established based on the deep learning Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for the first time. The model implementation requires solar 10.7cm flux index, geomagnetic index ap, grid map of TEC, solar wind speed and the southward components of interplanetary magnetic field. The predicting results for Beijing station (40°N, 115°E) show that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the disturbed ionosphere TEC predicted by RNN model is lower than that of BPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network) model by 0.49~1.46TECU. The forecasting accuracy of ionospheric positive storm by RNN model is increased by 16.8% with solar wind parameters. Furthermore, the RMSE of RNN model of 31 strong TEC storms in 2001 and 2015 are less than those of BPNN model by 0.2TECU, and the RMSE of RNN model is decreased by 0.36~0.47TECU as solar wind parameters are added. The results indicate that RNN model is more reliable than BP model for short-term forecasting of TEC. Moreover, the addition of interplanetary solar wind parameters are helpful for predicting TEC positive storm.