Solar Full-disk Flare Forecasting Model Based on 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux

Solar flare is an important solar active phenomenon, which is manifested as electromagnetic radiant enhancement in almost all wave bands. The statistics indicate that the solar flare is positively associated with the solar active levels. In this paper, a method for predicting the probability of solar flare is established based on the statistical relationship between 10.7 cm flux and solar flare during 1975 to 2007. The forecasting model can be used to predict the probability of C, M and X class flares. During 2008 to 2016, the predicted errors of the model for C, M and X class flares are 0.113, 0.087 and 0.012, respectively, and the predicted skill scores are 0.250, 0.106 and 0.012, respectively. It means that our method has less predicted errors and more skill scores than the average model for predicting C, M and X class flares. During the period from 2008 to 2016, the predicted results of the model are similar to that of Space Environment Prediction Center in National Space Science Center. It indicates that the model is feasible in the actual space environment prediction.