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MO Xingjian, LIANG Wei, ZHAO Xianglei, LEI Xiangxu, ZHAO You. Analysis of COSMOS 1408 Debris Cloud Evolution (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2025, 45(4): 1-9 doi: 10.11728/cjss2025.04.2024-0089
Citation: MO Xingjian, LIANG Wei, ZHAO Xianglei, LEI Xiangxu, ZHAO You. Analysis of COSMOS 1408 Debris Cloud Evolution (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2025, 45(4): 1-9 doi: 10.11728/cjss2025.04.2024-0089
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Analysis of COSMOS 1408 Debris Cloud Evolution

doi: 10.11728/cjss2025.04.2024-0089 cstr: 32142.14.cjss.2024-0089
  • 1.

    School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000

  • 2.

    Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunication Technology, Beijing 100094

  • 3.

    State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision, Measurement Science and Technology, CSA, Wuhan 430071

  • 4.

    National Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101

  • Received Date: 2024-07-10
  • Accepted Date: 2025-07-10
  • Rev Recd Date: 2024-12-30
    • Available Online: 2024-12-31
    Abstract
  • The number of spacecrafts in Earth orbit continues to increase, leading to growing density in near-Earth space. Statistics show that existing space debris primarily originates from approximately 640 breakup events. Studying satellite breakup events is crucial for maintaining space environment safety. On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted an anti-satellite test, destroying a defunct satellite — COSMOS 1408. The event generated a debris cloud consisting of approximately 1800 trackable debris distributed across altitudes ranging from 200 km to 1400 km, which disperses and evolves over time, posing threats to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite operations. Based on the Two-Line Element (TLE) data of COSMOS 1408 breakup event debris released by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), this paper utilizes the Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) model to analyze the evolution of the debris cloud. The analysis primarily covers the cataloged quantity and spatiotemporal changes of the debris cloud, variations in main orbital parameters, and the impact of breakup debris on the space environment. Taking the International Space Station’s (ISS) four debris avoidance maneuvers as examples, this study investigates the evolution patterns and resulting impacts, preliminarily reconstructing the evolution process of the COSMOS 1408 anti-satellite event debris cloud and its consequences.

     

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